Croydon Cyclone: Hole One...

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CharlieM
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Post by CharlieM » Wed Oct 13, 2010 12:49 pm

I think the OP misses two important points. Firstly, as pointed out by Tom, the stats assume the OBs were caused by missing the long shot. Further to that it assumes that all the 3s were due to laying up (Yes I missed a 5 foot putt) In practice I missed the short island 5 times out of 5 and hit the long island 3 times out of 3.

For that reason I went at it long all weekend and I think I hit it on all three rounds.

Also, sometimes circumstance in the game forces a risk: I went for the long island on the final despite a pulled muscle in my throwing arm as I was 8 shots behind, the two guys ahead of me had missed it and I needed to take the risk to have any chance of catching up (remembering that, statistically I was more likely to hit the long island than the short one). I missed it but so did all but one of the group and the one that hit it was still behind me, or very close to me, after that hole so I believe it was right to go long despite the fact that I missed it. I couldn't have won by laying up or by playing safe anywhere on the short round really.

I realize the advice to layup unless you feel sure is sound advice but the stats offered up to support it are badly flawed.

Edit: typos

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TheGroover
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Post by TheGroover » Wed Oct 13, 2010 2:22 pm

CharlieM wrote:I think the OP misses two important points. Firstly, as pointed out by Tom, the stats assume the OBs were caused by missing the long shot. Further to that it assumes that all the 3s were due to laying up (Yes I missed a 5 foot putt) In practice I missed the short island 5 times out of 5 and hit the long island 3 times out of 3.

For that reason I went at it long all weekend and I think I hit it on all three rounds.

Also, sometimes circumstance in the game forces a risk: I went for the long island on the final despite a pulled muscle in my throwing arm as I was 8 shots behind, the two guys ahead of me had missed it and I needed to take the risk to have any chance of catching up (remembering that, statistically I was more likely to hit the long island than the short one). I missed it but so did all but one of the group and the one that hit it was still behind me, or very close to me, after that hole so I believe it was right to go long despite the fact that I missed it. I couldn't have won by laying up or by playing safe anywhere on the short round really.

I realize the advice to layup unless you feel sure is sound advice but the stats offered up to support it are badly flawed.

Edit: typos
You're right Charlie - I don't know if the 3 means they missed a putt or not, but you can still see interesting data if you account for that. The peak of people scoring 6 indicates a lot of double-OBs, whichever way they went about it.

I'd never claim any stats can tell the whole story, but would you rather have the info or not? Having it can inform your opinion.
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